Friday, September 2, 2011

A Discussion of Global Warming

It is claimed by global warming proponents that the Earth temperature is rising out of control due to human industrial activity. The difficulty with this area of study is that politics is interfering with the science. Liberals tend to support the claims and use them to attack our capitalist economic system, while conservatives tend to discount the claims in defense of our capitalist economic system. The politics of this issue makes getting unbiased information difficult.

In discussion of what to do about global warming there the questions that need to be answered.
  1. Is the Earth actually warming or not?
  2. If it is what is causes. Is it man caused or natural?
  3. If it is man caused what it’s the best way deal with it?
If global warming were an honest scientific endeavor it would have stated out as simply some scientists reporting evidence of an unusual increase in global temperatures. No blame just noticing a trend. Then there would be more research suggesting human activity as the cause and then research would be gin on how to deal wit hit. In stead the issue hit the public with claims of man caused global warming and an obvious politically charged solution.

The "Medieval Warm Period" lasted from 700 to 1300 AD. During this time the Vikings sailed the North Atlantic without ice burgs. They colonized Greenland and named such because it was green at the time. Greenland froze over during later cooling trends. During this warn period average global temperatures were 1-2° warmer than today.

This warm period was followed by the "Sporer Minimum" which was a cool period that lasted from 1300 to 1500 AD. This was in turn followed by a brief climatic warming from 1500 to 1560 AD.

Then came the "Little Ice Age" which occurred between 1560 and 1830 AD. During this time average global temperatures were about 1 degrees cooler than today. Then there was a brief warmer period from 1830 to 1870 AD and a brief cool period from 1870 to 1910 AD. Finally, we have the 20th century warming period which started in 1910 AD and continues through the present.

In. a 1999 paper published in Geophysical Research Letters tree rings were used to assess temperature change back to 1000 AD. This data was then supplemented with other proxies from more recent centuries. It shows no sign of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, while showing a dramatic seemingly going out of control climate during the 20th century. This research is flawed both scientifically and statistically. The biggest problem is that of combining two totally different sets of data. The two sets of data; temperature and tree rings. They cannot be credibly combined into one data set.

Tree rings are a very poor indication of temperature, because they usually only grow the summer and they are affected by factors unrelated to temperature. By the way, the yellow area is the margin of error.

The first model seems to better represent global climate. It agrees with sun spot activity as measured sense 1600 as shown by the fact that the "Maunder Minimum" occurred at the same time as the "Little Ice Age". Sun spot activity translates into a measure of the variation into overall solar out put; including U.V. which affects the ozone layer. The 2000-2003 Solar Max should be noted here. This is the peek of the 11 years cycle of sun spot activity. It was the most active Solar Max ever observed and it coincides with current warming trend.

Radiocarbon dating of marine organisms in Sargasso Sea

Sediments show that its surface temperatures were about 2°F cooler during the Little Ice Age than today. It was about 2°F warmer during the Medieval Warm Period. It also shows two warm peeks before 500 BC called Holocene Climatic Optimum. The peeks have temperatures up to 4°F warmer than today, all without man-made greenhouse gasses as a cause. The Sargasso Sea data can go no further back than 1,000 B.C. because this is the point where C14 becomes unreliable.

There are many other data sources of data showing that the first model represents the global climate for last 1000 years.

Mars provides additional evidence that the current warming trend is caused by the sun, because it too is experiencing global warming. None of the probes we have landed there burn fossil fuels. They are all solar or nuclear powered, so we can not be the cause. The most likely cause of global warming on two planets is the sun.

Further more the models used to make prediction about future global temperatures are based on erroneous assumptions such as increased clouds increases global warming an assumption proven wrong on every cloudy day by the easily observable fact that when clouds block the sun the temperature goes down. They also assume that when the Earth temperature goes up it radiates less heat in to space which violates the lays of thermodynamics.   

Finally it turns out that even if all of the claims made by global warming proponents and their models are correct, the solutions they are proposing in many cases are worst options available in that they are extremity expensive for little benefits in return. So as a result global warming proponents are pushing for extremely expensive policies to solve a problem that do not exist.

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