Friday, January 25, 2013

The Real Odds of Space Aliens Existing

Evolutionists seem to be obsessed with finding extraterrestrial life and the reason for this obsession is that the Earth is unique in that it is the only known place in universe that harbors life. This is so suggestive of deign that it is repugnant to them and particularly so of atheists.  One thing the notion of extraterrestrial life presupposes is that abiogenesis is a relatively likely event and that evolving intelligent life from there is also fairly likely once you get that first living cell. The standard argument is that given all the planets that must exist in universe that thee has to be some one else out there. How ever those making this claim have clearly never really looked at the statistics of the matter. Recently I did a study of this question based on the assumption of naturalistic origins of life and intelligent life that shows that the odds do not have to be particularly low for us to be alone in the entire universe.


Current estimates are that there are a bout 100 billion galaxies in the observable universe and that there are about 10 billion planets with in the habitable zone of their star in our galaxy.  That comes tp 1011 X 1010 for an estimated total of 1021 habitable zone planets in the observable universe. At fist glance this seems like a large number such that we can not possibly be alone. If as many as 1 in 1,000 of these planets is actually capable of supporting life, probably being rather generous since we currently know of about 270 habitable zone planets only two of which (the Earh and Mars) have conditions that can support life and only one (the Earth)  is know to support life. In any case that reduces the number of planets capable of supporting life to 1018 planets. So unless the odds of abiogenesis occurring are better than 1 in 1018 then we are indeed alone. Given the fact satirical thermodynamics suggests that abiogenesis is thermodynamically impossible even 1 in 1018 is extremely generous.


Now this is only dealing with bacteria  or some other form a microscopic life when we go to intelligent life it doesn’t take vary poor odd for each step still mean that we are alone. Lets say that the odds of abiogenesis occurring are as good as one in a million. I know this is clearly being unreasonably generous since we probably would have evidence of it if it were that easy.  That reduces the number planets with life to 1012 planets. Now if the odds of developing complex multi cellular life are as good as one in a million an extremely generous assumption since single cell life greatly out numbers multi cell life. That reduces the number planets with complex multi cellular life to 106 (1 million) planets.  Now if the odds of developing intelligent life are as good as one in a million once again an extremely generous assumption since non intelligent life greatly out numbers intelligent life. That reduces the number planets with intelligent life to 1 planet which would be the Earth.


The point is that even by using extremely generous probabilities odd are that we are the only intelligent life in the universe. That of course assumes a totally naturalistic origin if however God created all live then these odds are meaningless and we and any other loving thing in the universe are special creations of God who could have made the universe any way he wanted. So why are Evolutionists so obsessed with finding extraterrestrial life given the fact that odds are that it probably does not exist. Well the reason is that the only other answer to our origin other than abiogenesis being common place is in the beginning God created it all. and that is unthinkable to them as some have addmited.



------ Charles Creager Jr.

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